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Gauging the MLB trade market: Rich in center, poor at 2nd and short, and lacking any aces
Gauging the MLB trade market: Rich in center, poor at 2nd and short, and lacking any aces

New York Times

time5 days ago

  • Sport
  • New York Times

Gauging the MLB trade market: Rich in center, poor at 2nd and short, and lacking any aces

Sean Murphy remains one of baseball's best at his position. Well above-average at the plate with strong defensive metrics behind it, Murphy is a rarity in today's game: an everyday, all-star-caliber catcher who's under contract for the next three seasons. He might not be the best player available at the trade deadline, but he certainly could be a unique one. Advertisement The market of available bats and arms will come into greater focus as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, but the potential for strengths and weaknesses is already apparent. There seem to be a lot of mid-rotation arms, but not many middle-of-the-order sluggers or middle-of-the-infield defenders. And there certainly aren't many catchers. Murphy has the seventh-highest fWAR among big league catchers — very close to being tied for fifth — and the catchers ahead of him aren't going anywhere. But the Atlanta Braves' disappointing season, along with the arrival of rookie Drake Baldwin, makes Murphy a reasonable trade candidate owed $15 million each of the next three seasons. The next-best catcher available could be Jose Trevino of the Cincinnati Reds, who's No. 2 on the depth chart and worth less than half Murphy's WAR. For teams in need of everyday help behind the plate, there's one really good catcher and perhaps not much else. It's like that at other positions, too. A lot of this, but not a lot of that. Two weeks before the trade deadline, these seem to be the relative strengths and weaknesses of the market. Even if Alex Bregman is unlikely to move, this trade market should still include Ryan O'Hearn, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor and Ryan McMahon. All are corner infielders who can make a difference. O'Hearn is an All-Star, Suarez is on track for 40-plus homers, Naylor remains a well above-average hitter, and McMahon is a good defender with some pop. And the market at first base goes even deeper with Carlos Santana and Nathaniel Lowe as Gold Glove winners who have offensive value, and Josh Bell could be a buy-low candidate with double-digit home run potential down the stretch. Ramon Urías and Yoan Moncada could also help a needy team at third base. Advertisement Teams desperate for help at second base or shortstop might have trouble trading for even a replacement-level player. Unless the Twins dangle Willi Castro, the best middle infielder on the trade market might be Ozzie Albies, who's having a disappointing season for the Braves and doesn't even rate as a top 30 second baseman by FanGraphs WAR. One of the Urías brothers — either Ramon or Luis — might be the next-best option at second, but they've typically been utility players rather than everyday guys. Angels infielder Luis Rengifo is having a negative WAR season, but in this market, might some team take a flyer and hope for two months of offensive resurgence? As for shortstops, the only one that's come even close to making our Big Board is Isiah Kiner-Falefa, another utility type who's been at least a sound defender with enough contact ability to have some offensive value. This is especially true if the Red Sox were to move Jarren Duran — a left fielder who's capable of playing center — but even without him as a headliner, the center fielder market could include Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader, Alek Thomas and Luis Robert. None of these have been massive bats, but Bader is having a resurgent season at the plate and offers above-average offense with some power. Mullins and Thomas have been above replacement level, too, and Robert is an immense talent that might be worth a gamble despite his awful 2025 numbers. Each of these center fielders has a different skillset that might fit a different team. Again, Duran would be a headliner for teams looking to acquire impact in an outfield corner, and his teammate Wilyer Abreu would also provide legitimate impact, but if the Red Sox don't move either of their left-handed corner outfielders, the best bet on the trade market is probably Taylor Ward of the Angels, and even he's not top 25 in wRC+ or fWAR among big league outfielders. The lack of a can't-miss outfield bat could raise the profile of Bryan Reynolds, who has almost $80 million remaining on his contract and started this season slow — he still has a negative WAR for the year — but he has a solid track record and had a better month of June. Even Adolis Garcia, known for his power, has been a below-average hitter the past two seasons. Given such limited supply, quality role players like Ramon Laureano, Austin Hays, Randal Grichuk, Jesus Sanchez and trade deadline staple Tommy Pham could also see their value rise. (Considering Marcell Ozuna has played two games in the outfield the past three years, we're assuming he's locked into a DH-only territory.). Advertisement Are you looking to fill out your rotation to get you to October? Well, you've got a range of options, including three different varieties of Zachary. You can go with Zack Littell, Zach Eflin or eschew every baseball writer's hesitation after typing the first three letters there and go with Zac Gallen. (We should apologize to Littell here; his given name is, in fact, Zack and not Zachary.) The point is, if you feel good about the top of your rotation but uneasy after that, there are plenty of choices here. Mitch Keller can be your No. 3 for a half-decade, Nick Martinez for eight weeks. Lucas Giolito, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Michael Soroka – they'd improve most every team's fourth- or fifth-starter situation. You know which Zachary isn't available? The one who's as good as any pitcher in baseball in Zack Wheeler. And there's basically nobody in or even near Wheeler's class that you'd feel good about acquiring and penciling in to be a Game 1 or even Game 2 starter in October. Wheeler's old teammate, Seth Lugo, is probably the best pitcher who might move, while former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara might be the one with the highest ceiling in 2025 — if he can put it all together. Does Merrill Kelly change how you feel about your team in a short series? Some of the biggest deadline moves ever have involved ace starting pitchers changing uniforms. Think Randy Johnson or CC Sabathia or David Price or David Price (again) or Max Scherzer. That ain't happening this year. Of course, one alternative to aid a flagging rotation is to shorten games on the back end, and you might have better luck there this July. Interestingly, a lot of the best relief arms that could move have multiple years of team control. David Bednar has shown 2024 to be an aberration; on a Pittsburgh team thinking of trading just about everyone, he looks like a sure bet to move. The Twins probably won't deal both Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, but either can change the way your team gets the final six outs of a playoff game. The Guardians should at least ponder moving Emmanuel Clase, given the strength they possess throughout their bullpen and the year-after-year weakness their offense remains. Maybe your goals aren't as grand this deadline. Maybe all you want is a guy who helps alleviate the anxiety of seeing Shohei Ohtani or Bryce Harper or Kyle Tucker or Juan Soto coming to the plate in the seventh inning with a man on. Maybe all you want is a good lefty, and like a dozen of those guys move every deadline, right? Advertisement Umm… Aroldis Chapman and Reid Detmers are overqualified for this job description, and it would probably be a surprise if either were dealt this month. But beyond those two, there's not a lot to love on the lefty market. Texas' Hoby Milner, Pittsburgh's Caleb Ferguson, Minnesota's Danny Coulombe and Baltimore's Gregory Soto – you can tell we're reaching because we had to remind you which team they're all on this year – are probably the best of what might move. How good are you feeling with them opposite Freddie Freeman in a big spot? (Top photo of Sean Murphy: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)

Was history made in Cincinnati on Tuesday night? We may never know
Was history made in Cincinnati on Tuesday night? We may never know

New York Times

time10-07-2025

  • Sport
  • New York Times

Was history made in Cincinnati on Tuesday night? We may never know

CINCINNATI — Former big-league utilityman Brock Holt received a text from Cincinnati Reds catcher Jose Trevino Tuesday night. 'Did you see?' Trevino wrote Holt, adding several eyes emoji. Holt needed no other context. 'Did you beat my record?' Holt asked. 'I tried,' Trevino texted him. Trevino was behind the plate for the Texas Rangers in 2021 when Holt, in what would be his 10th and final season in the big leagues, threw the slowest pitch ever recorded, an eephus pitch registered at 30.1 mph. Advertisement In the eighth and ninth inning of Tuesday's 12-2 loss to the Miami Marlins, Trevino threw 35 pitches. Sixteen measured less than 50 mph, including 12 slower than 40 mph. Holt pulled up the last two innings of the game, concentrating on the radar readings on the screen. 'I watched the eighth inning and was like, all you're doing is throwing knuckleballs,' Holt said. 'He goes, 'No, the ninth is when I tried.'' In the ninth, Trevino looked back at the scoreboard every pitch to see if he had topped his old teammate. His slowest measured pitch was 31.1 mph, the third-slowest recorded pitch since Major League Baseball instituted Statcast in 2015. The Reds catcher Jose Trevino had to finish the last 2 innings. His pitches were clocked at 31 mph . — Johnny Salzarulo (@JohnnySalzarulo) July 9, 2025 That 31.1-mph eephus was fouled off by Agustín Ramírez and ranks behind two pitches Holt threw to Trevino in 2021. And of the 27 slowest pitches tracked by StatCast since 2015, Trevino has thrown (12) and caught (6) 18 of them. But perhaps there's one more. His 31st pitch of the night, an 0-1 eephus to Marlins DH Heriberto Hernández, didn't register a velocity on Statcast. 'I thought it was 29 mph,' Trevino said Wednesday afternoon. He added that Reds assistant pitching coach Simon Mathews told him it may have been too slow to register, speculating that 30 mph may be the floor of what the system can track. Mathews said he didn't know that for sure, but was speculating. Mike Petriello, a writer focusing on Statcast and statistical analysis for said there are many reasons the pitch may not have registered, but that's not impossible. '(It) could also be that it was too much of an eephus-y rainbow for a system more accustomed to 'actual pitches,'' Petriello wrote in a text message Wednesday. Advertisement Hernández took the pitch outside as it bounced near the plate. He bent over at the waist, amused at the situation. He doubled on the next pitch — a fastball that came in at a relatively blistering 54.9 mph. (Trevino's fastest pitch was 63.1.) 'People might not think this, but it is difficult (to hit),' Hernández said through a team interpreter Wednesday afternoon. 'You're used to 95, 96 mph all the time and now you go to 30. I felt like I was pretty much hitting a fly ball.' It's also not easy to catch. 'I completely missed two balls because it was so slow,' backup Tyler Stephenson said. 'And I'm terrified because guys are swinging and I can't …' With that, the Reds' catcher began to pantomime raising his glove from the ground to the ball in to frame pitches in the strike zone as catchers are taught to do now. 'Guys are taking like softball swings,' Stephenson said. 'And it's coming in at a high angle. I missed two and he threw some knuckleballs in there too and he's got a legit knuckleball.' Reds manager Terry Francona said he felt bad asking Stephenson to catch on a day that he was serving as designated hitter. But, with Trevino on the mound, someone had to go behind the plate and the only one left was Stephenson. Adding to the stress, he was thrown into a game with the bases loaded. After Trevino shed his catcher's gear and Stephenson adorned his, the catcher-turned-pitcher stopped to say something to Lyon Richardson as the rookie reliever walked toward the dugout steps. 'Hey,' the veteran told Richardson, 'I'm not going to mess around this inning. I'm going to try to get these guys out as best as I can because I understand.' What Trevino understood is that no matter how many runs show up on his stat line, it won't impact his future earnings. For Richardson, the stakes are higher. Advertisement 'It shows that he cares,' Richardson said a day later. 'Not a lot of people would say that or would care going into a game like that, but to voice it and say that to me, it's huge.' It's the type of respect that Trevino received the second he stepped into the clubhouse in Goodyear, Ariz., for the first time this spring. After trading for the former Platinum Glove-winning catcher this offseason, the Reds signed Trevino to an extension before spring training ended. Dane Myers, the first batter Trevino faced, hit his fastest pitch of the night to right field, deep enough for the runner on third to tag up and score. On the mound, Trevino was furious at himself for adding to Richardson's pitching line. Trevino gave up a hit, but not another run. Still, as soon as he got back into the dugout, Trevino apologized to Richardson. Richardson looked at Trevino quizzically, before saying, 'Dude, he got on, on an error.' Trevino quickly realized that because the Marlins' Connor Norby reached on Matt McLain's error on the first play after McLain moved over from second to short, it was an unearned run. Richardson left his appearance with a 0 in the box score, not the most important thing in a blowout game, but it could be when he goes to arbitration for the first time. With Richardson off the hook, Trevino could then go have fun and seek his own bit of history. Did Trevino's ball that bounced in the batter's box opposite Hernández go slower than the one Trevino caught four years ago in Oakland? Could Trevino be the one who broke Statcast with his glacial eephus? Did he really break the 30-mph barrier? 'Plausible,' Petriello texted. 'But then there's likely other ones like that too.' There was baseball played before the technology that can tell you that Trevino's knuckleball to Kyle Stowers in the ninth inning had a spin rate of just 203 RPM, a knuckleball with so little spin that Stowers later told Stephenson he could see the MLB logo clearly on the ball. In more than 155 years of professional baseball in Cincinnati, it's plausible that a pitcher or bowler has thrown a pitch slower than 30 mph, but we'll never know for sure. Advertisement That leaves a fun argument between two old teammates. Who has the slowest pitch in big-league history? 'I think I got it,' Trevino said Wednesday. 'One hundred percent.' Holt momentarily conceded. 'I guess he can say he tied me,' Holt said, before reconsidering his answer. 'He didn't. I'm still the best. I'm still the slowest thrower of all time.'

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